Time & Venue
Thursday 4pm – 8pm (beginning on Thursday 25/02/202).1
Universität St. Gallen, Online Seminar.

Language: English
ETCS credits: 6

Course Description
Predicting the behavior of complex systems (the climate, the economy, human health etc.) is a major goal of modern science. In this seminar, we take a look at the historical development of predictive techniques in modern science with a special emphasis on climate science and the epistemological aspects of predictions. Another important topic will be the increased use of data‑driven predictive technologies in decision making. Thinking about the potential and the limitations our predictive capacities will facilitate an adequate understanding of the goals and methods of modern science and technology more generally.

Learning Objectives
This course enables students to:
1. understand the epistemic role of predictions in scientific practice (in the natural as well as social sciences);
2. critically reflect the potential and the limitations of science‑based predictions, as well as the causes of those limitations;
3. assess the societal and economic relevance of science‑based predictions in various domains.

Course Structure
The course has two parts. In the first part, general conceptual issues related to predictions in science will be discussed (the problem of induction, the use of predictions in model/theory testing, the limits of predictions etc.). The second part deals with the role of science‑based predictions in policy making in different areas (climate science, economic forecasting, the predictive use of AI.
Seminar sessions are held weekly on Zoom. Each session will consist of a lecture part and a discussion part. Participation in plenary discussions is essential. It is expected that students are willing to engage in group work. Although regular attendence is not a formal credit point requirement, active participation in the seminar sessions is strongly recommended.

Contact
Dr. Karim Bschir
karim.bschir@unisg.ch

Karim Bschir is a lecturer and managing director of the HSG ethics commission. After finishing his undergraduate studies inbiochemistry and philosophy, he obtained a PhD in philosophy of science at the ETH Zurich. His most recent research projectfocuses on the philosophical analysis of scientific predictions and was supported by a Branco Weiss Fellowship. He held visiting research positions at the London School of Economics, the Leibniz University in Hannover, and the University Roma Tre. In Fall 2014, he was a visiting fellow at the Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh. From 2019‑2020, he served as a scientific advisor for innovation and technology policy. Full academic profile at: www.karimbschir.philsci.ch

Course Evaluation Results
TBA