PART 1 – THE THEORY OF SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION
Session 1 (25 Feb): Introduction
Overview
- Information on program and credit point requirements
- Formation of groups for presentation
- Basic concepts: Defining prediction
- Understand the difference between temporal and epistemic predictions in science
In-class Readings
- Barrett, Jeff, and Kyle P. Stanford. 2005. “Prediction.” In The Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, edited by Jessica Pfeifer and Sahotra Sarkar. New York: Routledge.
To Do List
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
- Reading: Barrett & Stanford (2005) will be discussed in the plenary session.
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 1: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 1: Assignment
Session 2 (04 Mar): Induction and the logic of prediction
Overview
- Understand the problem of induction and its relevance for scientific predictions.
Preparatory Readings:
- Okasha, Samir. 2002. Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chapter 1: What is Science & Chapter 2: Scientific Reasoning.
Additional Readings:
- Ladyman, James. 2002. Understanding Philosophy of Science. Abingdon; New York: Routledge. Chapter 2: The Problem of Induction and Other Problems With Inductivism.
- Hume, David. 1999. An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748). Edited by Tom L. Beauchamp. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Section IV: Sceptical Doubts Concerning the Operations of the Understanding.
- Hume, David. 2000. A Treatise of Human Nature (1739), edited by David Fate Norton and Mary J Norton. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Book I, Part 3, Sect. 1-6.
- Goodman, Nelson. 1983. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast (1954). Cambridge MA); London: Harvard University Press. Chapter III. The New Riddle of Induction.
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Ch.1 & Ch.2 of Okasha (2002).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 2: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 2: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 3 (11 Mar): Using Predictions to test scientific theories
Overview
- Understand the role of predictions in theory testing
- Understand the logical assymetry between confirmation and falsification
- Understand the basics of falsificationism
Preparatory Readings
- Popper, Karl R. 2002. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London; New York: Routledge. Chapter 1: A Survey of Some Fundamental Problems.
Additional Readings
- Popper, Karl R. 2002. Science: Conjectures and Refutations (1957). In Conjectures and Refutations (pp. 43–78). London; New York: Routledge.
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Popper (2002)
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 3: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 3: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 4 (18 Mar): Prediction and Explanation
Overview
- Understand the basics of the DN-model of explanation.
- Understand the symmetry thesis and its problems.
- Understand the relevance of the counterarguments against the DN-model for economics.
Preparatory Readings
- Hempel, Carl G, and Paul Oppenheim. 1948. “Studies in the Logic of Explanation.” Philosophy of Science 15 (2).
Additional Readings
- Okasha, Samir. 2002. Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chapter 3: Explanation in Science.
- Reiss, Julian. 2008. “Explanation.” In: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online. http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_E000290 (Links to an external site.)
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Hempel and Openheim (1948).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 4: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 4: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 5 (25 Mar): Prediction in historical disciplines
Overview
- Understand the relationship between predictions and explanations in historical disciplines.
- Understand the concept of “hypothetical probability predictions”.
- Understand the basics of explanations in evolutionary theory.
- Understand the predictive potential (and limitations) of “applied history”.
Preparatory Readings
- Scriven, M. 1959. Explanation and Prediction in Evolutionary Theory. Science, 130(3374), 477–482.
Additional Readings
- Cleland, Carol E. 2011. “Prediction and Explanation in Historical Natural Science.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (3): 551–82.
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Scriven (1969).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 5: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 5: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 6 (11 Mar): Prediction and Explanation in the Social Sciences: Friedman’s Methodology of Positive Economics
Overview
• To understand the methodology of positive economics in Friedman (1953)
• To understand the role of predictions in Friedman’s methodology of positive economics
• To critically discuss Friedman (1953)
• To understand the difference between realism and instrumentalism in economics.
Preparatory Readings
- Friedman, Milton. 1953. “The Methodology of Positive Economics.” In Essays in Positive Economics:3–43. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Additional Readings
- Paul Krugman. 2007. “Who Was Milton Friedman?” The New York Review of Books, 2007.
- Mäki, Uskali. 2003. “The Methodology of Positive Economics’ (1953) Does Not Give Us the Methodology of Positive Economics.” Journal of Economic Methodology 10 (4): 495–505.
- Paul Hoyningen-Huene’s lecture at the University of Zurich on Philosophy of Economics“Introduction to the Philosophy of Economics” (see sections V.1-7 for discussions of Friedman)
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Friedamn (1953).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 6: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 6: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
SEMESTER BREAK
PART 2 – PREDICTION IN PRACTICE
Session 7 (22 Apr): Book Forum: The Black Swan & Presentation on Climate Science
Overview
- 16.15 – 17.15 Presentation climate science group incl. discussion.
- 17.30 – 19.00 Book Forum “The Black Swan”.
Preparatory Readings
- Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. download New York, N.Y.: Random House. Chapter 11: How to Look for Bird Poop.
Additional Readings
- Bschir, Karim (forthcoming). Prediction: A View from Philosophy. Chapter 4: The Limits of Predictability. (unpublished draft; please do not copy or disseminate).
- Lund, Robert. 2007. “Revenge of the White Swan. download ” American Statistician 61 (3): 189–92.
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Chapter 11 of Taleb (2007).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 7: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 7: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 8 (29 Apr): Predictions in climate science (guest lecturer: Reto Knutti, ETH Zurich)
Overview
- Understand the challenges and limitations of climate predictions.
- 4.30-5.30pm Guest lecture and Q&A with Reto Knutti, ETH Zurich.
Preparatory Readings
- Knutti, Reto. 2018. “Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World.” In Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues, edited by Elisabeth A. Lloyd and Eric Winsberg, 325–59. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.
Additional Readings & Materials
- Frisch, Mathias. 2015. “Predictivism and Old Evidence: A Critical Look at Climate Model Tuning.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2): 171–90.
- Frigg, Roman, Erica Thompson, and Charlotte Werndl. 2015. “Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate.” Philosophy Compass 12: 965–77.
- Smith, L. A., & Stern, N. 2011. “Uncertainty in Science and Its Role in Climate Policy. download ” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818–4841. Oreskes, Naomi. 2011. Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (Links to an external site.). New York, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
- The documentary (Links to an external site.) of the book.
- A symposium (Links to an external site.) with Naomi Oreskes and Reto Knutti at ETH.
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Knutti (2018) and take notes and questions. Reto Knutti from ETH Zurich will be joining the session as a guest lecturer.
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 4: Assignment Session 8: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 8: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 9 (6 May): Book Forums: Superforecasting & Destined for War
Overview
- 16.15-17.30 Book Forum “Destined for War”
- 17.45-19.00 Book Forum “Superforecasting”
Preparatory Readings
- Allison, Graham. 2017. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Chapter 10: Where do we go from here?
- Tetlock, Philip E, and Gardner Dan. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Crown Publishers. Chapter 3, pp. 72-96.
Additional Resources
On Allison (2017)
The book website at the Harvard Kennedy School (with links to other resources) (Links to an external site.)
The Wikipedia page on “applied history”
On Tetlock and Gardner (2015)
The publisher’s website (Links to an external site.)
The good judgement project (Links to an external site.)
A presentation by Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting (Links to an external site.)
An interview with Philip Tetlock on Youtube
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Ch. 10 of Allison (2017) and Ch. 3 of Tetlock and Gardner (2015).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 9: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 9: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 10 (20 May): Book Forum: Prediction Machines
Overview
- Book Forum “Prediction Machines”
Preparatory Readings
- Agrawal, Ajay, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb. 2018. Prediction Machines : The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence. Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business Review Press. Chapters 1, 2 & 7.
Additional Resources
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: Read Ch.s 1,2 and 7 of Agrawal et al. (2018).
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 10: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 10: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.
Session 11 (27 May): Wrap-up session
Overview
TBA
Preparatory Readings
TBA
Additional Readings
TBA
To Do List
- Preparatory Readings: tba
- Discuss: Post possible questions to be discussed in the plenary session here: Session 11: Questions & Topics
- Assignment: See Session 11: Assignment
- Participate: Join the Zoom session at 4.15pm.